This century has seen the rapid rise of the two emerging global nuclear armed superpowers through massive economic development and great ambition, China and India. The two countries are enormous population wise, far exceeding the United States by many times and rival each other by land mass. However, it is difficult to see how India and China will tolerate each other in the near future as Global Warming intensifies and mounting pressure on scarce resources pushes the two ever closer to more conflict
China and India have experienced very similar circumstances in the 21st century: massive foreign investment from firms and transnational corporations hailing from the developed west pour in for one reason alone, it is cheaper. Their populations have enabled a massive labour surplus, driving down prices to far below that of the average western country and relative skill in secondary industries, they have become massive emerging economies. But the two nations are far from friendly to each other.
Recently, border conflicts between India and China have ramped up massively. On June 16th this year, 20 Indian troops and unknown numbers of Chinese Troops were killed on disputed borders, near the Galwan Valley, patrolled by both sides. A truly deadly border clash between the two has not happened at least for 45 years since the 1962 Sino-Indian war for the same disputed borders. Why now after 45 years? Who has more to lose, who has more to gain?
Scarce resources and regional domination are two main objectives for the origin of their conflict. The two are by far the most influential power in South and East Asia and neither are willing to lose a bit of it. But more immediate than power is the problem of water. Clean water is becoming scarce for both countries. The area that the two dispute are at mountains and in turn, the sources of rivers. Water wars are likely a flashpoint that the two will have to meet on as their massive populations take a toll on the environment.
The megacities of northern China are expected to run out of water in less than 15 years, India has already lost all local water supplies in major urban centres such as Hyderabad and New Delhi. Over 10 million people in each of these cities are at risk of a crisis and it is up to the leadership of their countries to resolve it by any means possible.
The country that controls the source can turn it into a geopolitical weapon. Like a tap, they can eventually starve the other country out of water by dam or simply deny access. Even war would be probable at that point
Regional dominance is on the line for the two and China is winning. Their belt and road initiative since 2013 aims to secure Chinese political dominance across the world, from Indonesia to Portugal, through massive investment in infrastructure but mainly through loans that often are not able to be paid back by host countries, called a ‘debt-trap’ by many. India on the other hand has been unable to push back against Chinese influence abroad and will have to lean on the west for international support.